European elections in the Czech Republic using the D21 method

We present the detailed results of a representative survey for the European elections conducted by STEM/MARK. In addition to the standard single-vote system, we explored how the European Parliament elections would look if the D21 voting method were used. Under this system, voters could cast votes for up to two political parties and also grant votes to up to a third of the candidates within those parties, instead of the current limit of two preferential votes. What difference would this make in the European Parliament? Parties that appeal to a broader range of voters – including those from competing parties – would gain strength. Conversely, smaller, niche parties that do not appeal to voters from different parties would weaken. Let's break this down in more detail.

The representative survey and our election game, "A Second Vote for Europe," show that people readily use their second vote. Few of us have a preference for just one party. In our survey, only 21% of respondents refused to choose a second party. The remaining four-fifths knew whom else they would like to see in the European Parliament. Most second votes went to the Starostové a nezávislí (‘Mayors and Independents’; STAN), more than doubling their result. Piráti (‘Pirates’) and SPD (Freedom and Direct Democracy) in coalition with Trikolóra also saw significant gains from second votes. Below, we discuss which parties’ voters helped them get a better result.

The bars represent the percentage of voters who would support each party. The total number of votes adds up to 200%, minus the percentage of respondents who did not choose a second party.

Along with the total number of votes, the electoral threshold would also rise. To ensure that only parties with more than 5% of the total votes cast enter the European Parliament, our survey found that parties would need at least 8.96% support from voters. As a result, the SOCDEM-Budoucnost (Social Democratic Party-The Future) coalition would narrowly miss out. However, it's important to note that such close results cannot be definitively confirmed by an opinion poll due to the margin of error.

The two-vote system also serves as a good indicator of electoral potential in our current system. If a significant portion of voters who consider SOCDEM as a second-best option decided to support them, the Social Democrats would stand a strong chance of entering the European Parliament. The Freedom Party’s (Svobodní) potential to attract additional voters is slightly lower. In contrast, the Greens (Zelení) improve significantly under D21: nearly one in twenty respondents who are open to voting consider them as a second choice. However, since their primary voter base is very small, they would need to convince nearly all voters who consider them as an option to secure a seat.

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SPOLU voters support STAN and Pirates, SPD gains support from various directions

Which voters are most likely to support other parties? This is illustrated in the overlap graph. The arrows indicate the direction of support, while thicker arrows represent stronger connections. We can see that ANO draws many of its second votes primarily from SOCDEM and from the Stačilo and SPD-Tricolóra coalitions. Support from the voters of the largest opposition party, ANO, flows back to SPD, but to a much lesser extent. By contrast, there is a mutual overlap between STAN, the Pirates, and SPOLU (‘Together’; center-right coalition).

The specific mutual support is detailed in the table below. Rows represent voters of each party based on their first vote, while columns indicate which parties received their second votes. For instance, 47% of SPOLU voters gave their second vote to STAN. In return, 41% of the STAN voters supported SPOLU. Since there are more SPOLU voters, this exchange benefited STAN significantly more.

Data for smaller parties should be interpreted with caution. The sample size for very small parties is limited, meaning that the results may not be fully representative. However, these figures still provide an interesting estimate of where these parties might look for voters.

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Uncertain voter turnout for ANO and Přísaha

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Some parties may focus more on mobilizing voters who are uncertain about their participation in the election. This is particularly relevant for ANO, Přísaha (‘The Oath’), Motorists, and the Greens, whose supporters are considering whether they will vote at all. On the other hand, SPOLU and Freedom Party voters are more determined to cast their ballots. Older voters, especially those over 60, are more confident about their participation, whereas younger people are planning to vote in smaller numbers.

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Our survey also examined which candidates people would vote for and how preferences might shift if voters could cast up to ten preferential votes. Increasing the number of votes available did not significantly change the ranking of candidates, but people did appreciate having the ability to express more preferences. Under the current system, limited to two preferential votes, respondents selected on average fewer than one candidate. When the limit was increased, respondents gave an average of about four preferential votes. In both cases, apart from a few exceptions, the most successful candidates were those at the top of the party lists. You can see which candidates would have received preferential votes in the tables below.

The survey was conducted online by the STEM/MARK agency, with 1,398 respondents aged 18 and over. Data collection took place from May 20 to 27, 2024. The research is representative in terms of gender, age, education, size of residence, and region. The data were weighted to reflect voting preferences in the 2021 parliamentary elections. Voting preference data include participants who indicated they would "definitely" or "probably" vote (n=1026) and who also chose their preferred party.

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