Slovak presidential elections: D21 voting results show Korčok's lead, but Pellegrini's broader appeal

Allowing voters to cast three plus votes shows that Korčok has a stronger base of staunch supporters, whereas Pellegrini appears to be a more acceptable choice for his competitors' voters. Analysis by the Institute H21, conducted on a representative sample of 1,032 respondents by NMS Market Research, suggests that the two candidates are evenly matched heading into the second round. With the D21 voting method, the winner could be decided in a single round, reducing the impact of declining voter turnout and polarization ahead of the decisive stage of the election.

Note: Eligible voters in Slovakia, aged 18 and over. Representative sample of 1,032 respondents. Data collection took place from March 8 to 13, 2024, by NMS using CAWI technology. Under the D21 method, where voters could support up to three candidates, the sum of shares is 300%, adjusted for any unused second and third votes.

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Additional votes point to a tight second round

The results show that Pellegrini is a more acceptable candidate for his competitors' voters, receiving more second and third votes than Korčok – by about six percentage points. Under the multiple-vote system, Ján Kubiš would benefit the most, moving up to fourth place, right behind Štefan Harabin, who, paradoxically, received more second preferences than first preferences. His support from second and third votes mainly comes from Pellegrini’s voters, who may see an ideological similarity between the two. Some of these voters might genuinely prefer Harabin but are strategically voting for the HLAS leader in the first round, knowing that their preferred candidate has minimal chances. At the same time, Harabin also attracted some supporters of Andrej Danko (who had by then withdrawn in Harabin’s favor) and Marian Kotleba.

The least popular alternative choice among respondents was Krisztián Forró, the candidate of the Hungarian Coalition, whose potential would be exhausted in the first round, dropping him to the bottom of the rankings. In terms of third votes, Patrik Dubovský from the Za Ľudí (‘For People’) party stands out, who we described as a more consensual conservative candidate in a recent podcast on the presidential elections. He could gain a substantial number of second and third votes. However, under the D21 method, he would still only place fifth, behind Ján Kubiš, who was the most favored candidate in both second and third votes.

However, this alone was not enough for any of the weaker candidates, and the multiple-vote system generally showed that respondents eventually supported either of the top two candidates, either initially (first preference) or subsequently (second and third preferences). With a multiple-vote system, both of the top candidates would cross the 50% support threshold. 

Clear division into two camps

Allowing voters to support additional candidates reveals their thinking ahead of the second round. More than half of Igor Matovič's voters chose Ivan Korčok as their second choice, and the same was true for voters of Patrik Dubovský and Róbert Švec. Peter Pellegrini, on the other hand, received support mainly from Harabin's camp and, to a lesser extent, from Danko's and Kotleba's voters, who do not consider Korčok an acceptable choice. The dynamics of Ján Kubiš's votes were also interesting. He received second and third votes most often from Korčok's voters, but Kubiš's voters did not reciprocate – Pellegrini was clearly their preferred candidate. This shows that overlaps in voter preferences are not always mutual.

Of course, weaker candidates also received some additional votes. Igor Matovič attracted support from Milan Náhlik's and Krisztián Forró's voters, but both have a small voter base. As a result, the leader of the Slovensko (‘Slovakia’) movement dropped in the candidate rankings, and even support from 16% of Korčok's voters was not enough to help. Patrik Dubovský benefited from the support of Róbert Švec's and Ivan Korčok's voters. Andrej Danko was aided by Harabin's, Kotleba's, and especially Pellegrini's supporters, but his own voter base was too small for it to make much difference, leaving him without a real chance in the election.

The electorate appears to be divided into two clear camps. Both Korčok and Pellegrini receive strong (almost two-thirds) support from voters of one of the candidates in the 2019 presidential run-off. Ivan Korčok draws his support from President Zuzana Čaputová's voters, while Peter Pellegrini is backed by supporters of the unsuccessful candidate, Maroš Šefčovič. Voters from the governing coalition parties (excluding SNS) support Pellegrini in over 70% of cases, whereas Korčok mainly relies on voters from Progressive Slovakia, KDH, and some supporters of the Slovensko movement.

The survey also captured fewer than eight percent of respondents who are still undecided about whom to vote for in the first round. This is a much lower figure compared to the Czech presidential elections last year, where about a quarter of voters were undecided a week before the elections. Among those undecided, the most commonly cited preferences were the two frontrunners – Korčok and Pellegrini. They still have a lot of work to do in convincing undecided voters before the second round.

People enjoy casting multiple votes

The D21 voting method allows voters to support up to three candidates instead of just one. All votes are counted, and the candidate with the most votes wins. Voters readily took advantage of this option. Nearly half of them cast all three of their votes, while another 30% voted for two candidates. Only one vote was most commonly cast by Ivan Korčok's voters (34%) and Krisztián Forró's voters (26%), indicating a potential lack of other acceptable options for these groups. On the other hand, most of the voters for weaker candidates used all their votes. Given the low preferences for their favorites, these voters were likely already considering alternative options.

People who were more interested in politics and those who believed they understood politics well were more likely to use all their votes. Those who felt politics was too complicated or who lacked opinions on political issues were less likely to cast a second or third vote. Men, people over 55, and those with only primary education were most likely to vote for three candidates. There was no difference by region or employment status, though voters of Hungarian nationality gave fewer second votes, possibly reflecting a reluctance among supporters of Krisztián Forró, the candidate of the Hungarian Coalition, to distribute additional votes.

Survey Parameters

The survey, conducted by NMS Market Research using CAWI technology, included 1,032 people aged 18 and over. It is representative in terms of gender, age, education, size of residence, region, and socio-economic status based on quota sampling reflecting the structure of the Slovak population. The data were weighted according to the 2023 Slovak National Council elections. Data collection took place from March 8 to 13, 2024.

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